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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.