Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
